“Salary more than 1 thousand euros: the top countries to which Ukrainian doctors go to work”, video, YouTube, 20 November 2017, http://bit.ly/2BqOtCj.Hide Footnote compared to the $900 they can make next door in the EU. A senior Ukrainian interlocutor remarked that TCG participants could often only find common ground on a single goal: preserving and restoring shared critical infrastructure. [fn]“Міграційний рух населення у січні-липні 2017 року” [“Migration dynamics in January-July 2017”], State Statistical Service of Ukraine.Hide Footnote What distinguishes Zakarpattya and neighbouring Chernivtsi, bordering Romania, from these heartland regions is the fact that residents leverage ethnic ties with neighbouring states to ease the process: Hungary is often not Zakarpattians’ final destination; instead, many labourers use it as a springboard to other EU states with stronger economies. During the 2003 Operation Artemis in the Democratic Republic of Congo, for example, was an EU operation with a Chapter VII Security Council mandate to secure parts of the north-eastern town of Bunia. He pointed to sanctions, the closure of facilities, and the expulsion of diplomatic personnel by way of illustrating the challenges in the bilateral relationship.Hide Footnote. [fn]“Четыре страны ЕС просят Киев не ограничивать языки нацменьшинств” [“Four EU Countries ask Kyiv not to limit ethnic minority languages”], BBC, 15 September 2017.Hide Footnote Moscow’s response was slow and subdued; some Kyiv-based experts speculate it was sparing itself the effort as Ukraine’s western neighbours were making enough noise on their own. This would curb artillery and rocket attacks and facilitate the withdrawal of Russian and proxy troops and equipment; 3. after 60 days, full access to the entirety of the occupied territories is to be ensured, including presence along the international border in Donetsk and Luhansk regions; and control over the border (including inspections of any cross-border traffic), thereby ensuring an end to further rearmament of the illegal militias”. Crisis Group interview, Rivne oblast self-government official, Rivne city, February 2017. cit. Oversee transparent, lawful provision of amber mining licenses for community-based cooperatives. “План створення угорської автономії на Закарпатті (Документ)” [“The plan to create a Hungarian autonomy in Zakarpattya (Document)”], Informator, 11 March 2017. Crisis Group interview, international elections expert, Kyiv, September 2017. This has presented moral and logistical dilemmas to Zakarpattya’s over 100 minority-language schools, which include over 50 Hungarian ones. [fn]Crisis Group interviews, visa preparation agents, Uzhhorod, February 2017.Hide Footnote Pensioners crossing the nearby Romanian border echoed this sentiment, saying they had obtained EU residency to access better medical care and because post-Maidan leaders had “looted the country”. Krisztina Than, “Hungary asks EU to review Ukraine ties over language row”, Reuters, 10 October 2017. Throughout this period, the state enterprise Burshtyn Ukraini (Ukrainian Amber) was the only legally licensed miner, and saw yields that were merely a fraction of the illicit traders’. Crisis Group correspondence, trader, October 2017; Crisis Group interview, miner, October 2017; Crisis Group phone call, anti-mining activist, December 2017. “Медики Закарпатья массово выезжают работать за границу – больницы пустеют” [“Hospitals empty out as Zakarpattya doctors leave en masse to work abroad”], Ua-Reporter.com, 27 October 2016. Путин о ситуации в Донбассе” [“‘We fight repetition of the Srebrenica tragedy’. It is a think tank, used by policymakers and academics, performing research and analysis on global crises. The Rasmussen option also lays out three phases: “1. [fn]Crisis Group interview, Ukrainian diplomat, New York, October 2017.Hide Footnote Other Ukrainians suggest still higher numbers. Neither blanket incriminations nor blanket amnesties will win international support. “Cредняя зарплата в Украине” [“Average salary in Ukraine”], Ministry of Finance Financial Portal. [fn]The practice has been well documented in news and magazine stories and on YouTube. Ukrainian concerns about Russia’s proposal are not only motivated by distrust of Moscow. [fn]The content of this second proposal has been mostly gleaned from press accounts of a September 2017 phone call between Putin and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. [fn]Former Swedish prime minister, Carl Bildt, commented in an October 2017 public discussion in Brussels that “the EU is missing in action”. [fn]Krisztina Than, “Hungary asks EU to review Ukraine ties over language row”, Reuters, 10 October 2017.Hide Footnote Budapest also promised to block Kyiv-led initiatives in multilateral organisations, including the UN and Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). Crisis Group interview, Boryslav Rozenblat, Kyiv, February 2017; Crisis Group interviews, Obishche, Zhytomyr oblast, February 2017; Sarny, Rivne oblast, April 2017; Crisis Group correspondence, Kyiv/Rivne, September 2017. For monthly salaries in amber-mining districts, see “Новини у листопаді 2017 року” [“November 2017 news”], available at http://www.rv.ukrstat.gov.ua/.Hide Footnote, Local economic benefits have been mixed. The latter could potentially complement the disarmament and demobilisation of non-state groups, which peacekeepers might also supervise. Ensure pardon and amnesty by enacting the law prohibiting the prosecution and punishment of persons in connection with the events that took place in certain areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine. At most, it could establish just enough security to pressure Kyiv into making concessions to separatist held areas, which would weaken its hand and strengthen that of Russia. Russia denies involvement in the conflict and that it is a party to it.Hide Footnote But progress – whether withdrawal and cantonment of heavy weapons, agreement on procedures for local elections, hostage exchanges, even the provision of humanitarian assistance – has been minimal. But resistance to Minsk in Ukraine could also prove a complicating factor. [fn]See appendices for text of Minsk agreements.Hide Footnote. Crisis Group interview, Ukrainian diplomat, New York, October 2017.Hide Footnote In November 2017, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin announced a fresh Ukrainian proposal was ready, but the U.S. reportedly discouraged its submission, opting to focus instead on further diplomacy with Moscow. [fn]“Про що ми проголосували” [“What we voted for”], Ukrainska Pravda, 8 October 2017.Hide Footnote Kyiv thus far has deferred its fulfilment of these obligations by appealing to insecurity in Donbas, Russia’s continued influence and Ukrainian authorities’ lack of access to those areas. This article cites a Kyiv-based blogger and passionate Kremlin critic at length.Hide Footnote Russia and the separatists it backs in Ukraine’s east are no longer quite on the same page, especially since the Kremlin abandoned ideas of annexing the breakaway republics or recognising their independence. Per capita income in 2016 was $963, less than 80 per cent of the national average. [fn]Some Ukrainian interlocutors also pointed out that Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) member states should also automatically be disqualified because of close links to Russia.Hide Footnote Volker initially appears to have hoped for Sweden to lead as a UN-mandated framework force. Review our privacy policy for more details. Media sensationalise mining districts as “the Amber People’s Republic”,[fn]See, for example, “Янтарная Республика – это аналог ДНР на западе Украины – Романенко” [“Romanenko: The Amber Republic is western Ukraine’s answer to the DNR”], Hvylya, 13 March 2016.Hide Footnote and a Rivne oblast official warned that attempts to curb the trade by force could spark violent resistance. Some suggest the U.S. refuses to engage in the TCG and Normandy Four so as not to dignify Russia’s claims it is not a party to the conflict. See also Oleg Sukhov, Oksana Grytsenko and Alyona Zhuk, “All in the family: the sequel”. cit.Hide Footnote Located in the far south west, it shares a border with four European Union (EU) countries. Crisis Group interviews, Kyiv, September-November 2017. U.S. officials present cooperation with EU and OSCE counterparts as close, and the latter view Volker as a serious, clear-headed negotiator. Motivated largely by Putin’s claim that Russia annexed Crimea to protect Russian-speakers, Kyiv has sought over the past three years to ensure predominance of the Ukrainian language in public life. LIVE”], video, YouTube, 4 February 2017, http://bit.ly/2jPoSLB.Hide Footnote Remittances are the core source of income for many rural households, but do not produce tax revenue because they are neither passed through formal channels, nor reinvested in domestic business development.[fn]M.I. The potential compromise that would underpin such a mandate and the ability of peacekeepers to operate in Donbas would hinge on the consent and goodwill of both Moscow and Kyiv. While Western diplomats regard Moscow’s proposal warily, some also view it as an opportunity to engage. [fn] Crisis Group interviews, staff from international humanitarian organisations still operating in areas outside Kyiv’s control, Kyiv, Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Sviatohirsk, September-December 2017. [fn]Crisis Group interview, Kyiv, October 2017.Hide Footnote Berehove’s town head condemned discussions of autonomy in Budapest and called for improved Ukrainian-language instruction in Hungarian schools – while stressing the right of Hungarians to study in their native language: “We would like to be considered full-fledged members of society, having lived for centuries at the foot of the Carpathians”, he wrote, adding: “It’s not our fault that the border changed several times in a single decade”. If Russian and separatist forces withdraw, Moscow claims Ukrainian nationalist forces may exact revenge on those they perceive as separatist collaborators, with peacekeepers unable to protect them. [fn]Crisis Group interviews, UN official, Kyiv, September 2017; and diplomat, New York, October 2017.Hide Footnote. Crisis Group interview, Ukrainian diplomat, New York, October 2017. The UN Transitional Administration for Eastern Slavonia, Baranja and Western Sirmium (UNTAES), deployed in 1996 to help reintegrate those areas into Croatia after the Yugoslav wars – a mandate with parallels to the potential mandate of any Donbas mission – comprised a 5,000-strong force. Too many parallel tracks also risk forum shopping by Moscow or Kyiv. Putin on the situation in Donbas”], RIA Novosti, 19 October 2017. While Russia’s proposal provides an opportunity for Western allies to explore what role peacekeepers could play, the discussion risks overlooking important dynamics in Ukraine itself. Kyiv and its allies need to acknowledge their failures in battling corruption and quickly change course. “Проект Закону про особливості державної політики із забезпечення державного суверенітету України над тимчасово окупованими територіями в Донецькій та Луганській областях” [“Draft law on the aspects of state policy of the restoration of Ukraine’s state sovereignty over the temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions”]. While, in principle, there may be reasons for it to seek a way out of a costly intervention in eastern Ukraine, the small force proposed would more likely freeze the conflict than resolve it. Kuchma left office in 2005 after the Orange Revolution amid rumours of electoral fraud and accusations of involvement in the brutal 2000 assassination of renowned Ukrainian journalist Georgiy Gongadze; allegations Kuchma has always strongly denied. Crisis Group interview, Uzhhorod, April 2017. Western powers might also prepare their own draft Security Council resolution – one either drafted together with Ukraine or if not that meets its red lines – as a counterproposal to Russia’s drafts. Several Kyiv taxi drivers, for example, spoke independently of having mined amber in Zhytomyr oblast with a group of friends in the summer. Even without police corruption, any further increases could stretch local law enforcement’s limited capacity to the breaking point. annexation of a portion of its territory by a vastly bigger and more powerful neighbor Weapons, UN Peacekeepers, Isolation of Post-Soviet Conflict Regions Narrows the Road to Peace, https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-11-14/russia-s-economy-is-growing-with-borrowed-money. Crisis Group interviews, Washington and European capitals, September-December 2017. Some Ukrainians take a minimalist line: only those whom credible courts substantiate beyond a reasonable doubt to have participated in war crimes or crimes against humanity should be prosecuted. Crisis Group interview, senior U.S. official, Washington DC, November 2017. These include, on the Ukrainian side, former President Leonid Kuchma, who faced various corruption scandals while in office,[fn]Kuchma left office in 2005 after the Orange Revolution amid rumours of electoral fraud and accusations of involvement in the brutal 2000 assassination of renowned Ukrainian journalist Georgiy Gongadze; allegations Kuchma has always strongly denied. “Медики Закарпатья массово выезжают работать за границу – больницы пустеют” [“Hospitals empty out as Zakarpattya doctors leave en masse to work abroad”], Ua-Reporter.com, 27 October 2016. See “Регіональні дані ЗНО-2016” [“Regional EIE (External Independent Evaluation) data, 2016”], Ukrainian Center for Education Quality Assessment (http://stat.testportal.gov.ua/), 2007-2016. By International Crisis Group What will it take to end the war in Ukraine? To ensure the monitoring and verification of the ceasefire by the OSCE. Hard Talk. !”[fn]Crisis Group interview, Rivne city, February 2017. For the estimate of Hungarian citizens in the oblast, see “Cамоопределение от ‘йоббиков’ и ‘великая венгрия’ от орбана” [“Jobbiks say ‘self-determination’, Orban says ‘great Hungary’”], Strana.ua, 18 October 2017. The clearest example of Kyiv’s misbegotten response to concerns about cross-border influence is the September 2017 education reform package, which included a law that requires minority-language schools to begin transitioning grades 5-12 to Ukrainian-only curricula starting in 2018, and grades 1-4 starting in 2020. “Ukraine Poll: Slight Improvement in National Outlook; Strong Support for Europe”, International Republican Institute (www.iri.org), 22 August 2017.Hide Footnote A member of the nationalist opposition recently argued that public calls from Kyiv and western allies to “save the three million people of Donbas” ring hollow: the real priority should be to “save the over 40 million people” in Kyiv-controlled Ukraine from a future of indignity. Crisis Group interview, Sarny, Rivne oblast, April 2017. See “Cкоро повіє північний вітер: три причини повернення Ходаковського в Донецьк” [“The north wind will soon blow: three reasons for Khodakovsky’s return to Donetsk”], Apostrof, 20 September 2016. President Trump himself may have inadvertently played into Ukrainian fears that the U.S. and Russia might strike a deal behind Kyiv’s back when he reportedly told Poroshenko during their September 2017 meeting that the U.S. wanted peace in Ukraine, suggesting that his administration was particularly vested in capitalising on the current diplomatic opening.