But we must also be practical. We saw early on in the pandemic that the number of daily deaths rapidly soar and at that time did we not know where and when it would stop rising. It is important to appreciate that much of the early serological studies were conducted on hospitalised patients who, by definition, are the most ill cohort. To do that, they exploit as ‘grappling hooks’ receptors on the outside of those cells – in the case of the new virus, and at high speed, scientists determined it is an enzyme called ACE2. The evidence presented in this paper indicates that there should be no expectation of a large scale ‘second wave’ with smaller localised outbreaks when the virus contacts pockets of previously uninfected populations. It is how mammals – specifically jawed vertebrates – learned to live with the thousands of viruses that infect every living organism on the planet, not just us, but even plants, fungi and bacteria. Taking this and applying it more widely, the very strong similarities of UK data with that of nearby countries which employed different responses yields another conclusion – that none of the interventions altered the broad course of the pandemic event. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2008.02475.pdf. Based upon guidance from NHS England, our primary and secondary care service across the country are currently following protocols to limit access to care due to the dangers of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19) pandemic. How Many Excess Deaths Are Due to COVID-19? 0. While this model may have had some limited value when we were faced with a novel virus outbreak, the evidence that has emerged over recent months along with detailed analysis of previous outbreaks implies that the model that is still being followed is unreliable and not consistent with both previously measured systems and current evidence. Counting COVID-19 ‘Cases’ is Misleading Everybody, Scandal: PCR Testing Sites Not Fit For Purpose, Dr Clare Craig: ‘We Are In A False Positive Pseudo-Epidemic’, Health and Safety Breaches at the Milton Keynes Lighthouse Lab. Let us take a midpoint value, especially as for months the US CDC displayed a value for IFR of 0.26% on their website. If 100% truly were susceptible, then epidemiology suggests that 65% would have to be infected for the herd immunity threshold to be reached, given the initial estimates of R0. Pediatrics, e2020004879 DOI: 10.1542/peds.2020-004879. The T-cell response was consistent with measurements taken after vaccination with approved vaccines for other viruses. There is no biological principle that leads us to expect a second wave based on the accumulation of data over the past six months. The Ct gives strong evidence of the viral load and aids clinicians in determining if a patient has a “hot” infectious positive result or a “cold” non-infectious positive result. New Eng. “Is it flu or is it COVID-19?” is a question easily answered. So we have just installed donation buttons on our websites and ask that you consider this when you visit them. Alternatively, innate and cellular memory responses can be sufficient. Complaint to the GMC about Mandatory Vaccines, Vaccine Passports Make a Mockery of ‘Free Consent’. To do us harm, viruses need to get inside our cells. COVID-19 and the Infantilisation of Dissent, The Hyper-Rationality of Crowds: COVID-19 and the Cult of Anxiety, Covid and the Religious Impulse: An Essay in Seven Parts, A Pandemic of Fear – the Psychology of Emotional Contagion, Liars, Fakers, and the Seductive Texture Of Authoritarianism, Lockdowns and the Death of Liberal Education, The Burden of Proof in the Irish High Court Case Should Not Have Fallen on the Applicant, The Catch-22 of Challenging Covid-19 Laws, ‘Jail Bharo!’ – Channelling Our Inner Gandhi Against the Covidcrats, The Failed Strategy of Lockdown Sceptics: We Appealed to Reason, Not Emotion. (ONS prevalence survey Aug 14th 2020). Ct values above 30 returned negative cultures in all except one case. Prior to this, three other groups including immunologists in Germany, Sweden and the USA each independently published similar findings (refs as above and discussed in Sewell, 2020). In this case the first major peak was seen in Saudi Arabia with a second peak some months later in the Republic of Korea. This is the basis of all the second wave fears we hear about. The problem of using any assay to conduct surveillance on a low prevalence virus with a PCR test has been widely discussed (Heneghan, 2020). Doi 10.1038/s41586-020-2550-z. Long, et al. In mildly symptomatic and asymptomatic patients, a lower proportion seroconvert (Long et al, 2020). Herd immunity thresholds for SARS-CoV-2 estimated from unfolding epidemics. Note that recent so-called ’spikes’ were never accompanied or followed by people getting ill, going to hospital and dying in elevated numbers. Doi 10.1038/s41586-020-2550-z. The Role of Antibody Testing for SARS-CoV-2: Is There One? A reasonable hypothesis is that the lower intensity of immunological challenges tends to rely less on the generation of antibodies and more on innate and cellular responses. So what is happening in terms of second wave concerns in France and Spain? 13 votes, 45 comments. How Likely Is A Second Wave – And Can It Be Prevented? Further, it is reasonable to conclude that the pandemic event has ended in those countries, too. How Convincing is Imperial College’s COVID-19 Model? It is now established that at least 30% of our population already had immunological recognition of this new virus, before it even arrived (Le Bert et al, 2020; Braun et al, 2020; Grifoni et al, 2020). History has also shown that subsequent second and third waves of outbreaks of disease can be deadlier than the initial wave of disease, which is … Analysed individually, each area followed a typical single event Gompertz curve.